giovedì 27 settembre 2007

Operation Granite State

Secondo l'ultimo sondaggio commissionato da CNN alla New Hampshire University, Rudolph Giuliani ha praticamente recuperato tutto lo svantaggio accumulato nel Granite State in questi mesi nei confronti di Mitt Romney. Il sondaggio vede Romney al 25% e Giuliani al 24%. I due front-runner sono inseguiti da John McCain al 18% e da Fred Thompson al 13%. A luglio, il vantaggio di Romney era di 14 punti percentuali.

Electability

Secondo il Daily Telegraph (via QandO), la candidatura di Hillary potrebbe costare la Casa Bianca al partito democratico. In un memo interno arrivato misterioramente sul desk del Washington Post, infatti, un sondaggio commissionato a Lake Research (istituto di provata fede democratica) vede l'ex First Lady - e, in misura minore, anche il suo principale concorrente, Barack Obama - soccombere di almeno dieci punti percentuali in 31 swing districts. Da queste parti lo abbiamo già detto e lo ripeteremo fino alla nausea: con Rudy (e solo con Rudy) la vittoria non è impossibile.

Hillary Rodham Kerry

William Kristol, sul Weekly Standard, racconta il flip-flop di Hillary sul Generale Petraeus.

Party Crasher

(...) Contrariamente a quello che candidati di entrambi i partiti possono pensare, la linea di divisione politica in America non corre tra il GOP e le minoranze. Per la maggior parte degli americani, non corre neppure tra Repubblicani e Democratici, o in quell'invenzione dei media che è "stati-blu-contro-stati-rossi". La vera divisione è tra gli americani che pagano le tasse e lavorano duramente - di entrambi i partiti e di ogni razza - e un sistema permanentemente in trincea, quello di Washington, progettato per servire i propri bisogni e non quelli del popolo americano.
Newt Gingrich contro tutti, sulle colonne del New York Post.

venerdì 21 settembre 2007

Rudy & Maggie

Su The Mote in God's Eye e Italian Bloggers for Giuliani 2008.

25 traditori

Il Senato statunitense ha approvato - 75 a 25 - un emendamento di condanna nei confronti di MoveOn.org, che lo scorso 10 settembre ha acquistato (con i soldi di Soros) una infame pagina pubblicitaria per insultare il generale Petraeus poche ore prima della sua testimonianza di fronte al Congresso. I senatori che hanno espresso voto contrario appartengono tutti, naturalmente, al partito democratico. Via Captain's Quarters, pubblichiamo la lista dei 25 traditori. Una di loro (indovinate chi?) sarà il candidato del partito alle presidenziali del 2008. Un altro è stato il candidato nel 2004. Qualcuno ha ancora dei dubbi?

Akaka (D-HI)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Byrd (D-WV)
Clinton (D-NY)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Harkin (D-IA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Levin (D-MI)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Murray (D-WA)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wyden (D-OR)

The Bounce Is Over

Anche per Rasmussen Reports, Fred Thompson torna sulla terra (+1% su Giuliani). Mentre per Gallup (+8%), Pew Research (+11%), Fox News (+12%) e Cook/RT Strategies (+8%), il vantaggio di Rudy è ancora consistente.

lunedì 17 settembre 2007

L'autunno (caldo) di Tocqueville

Dopo la splendida esperienza di qualche giorno fa ad Atreju 07, dove i nostri blogger hanno offerto un servizio unico di informazione in tempo reale, anche nelle prossime settimane TocqueVille continuerà ad essere presente ovunque il mondo liberale e conservatore sia in grado di dare testimonianza di vitalità e capacità di aggregazione. Ecco un breve giro d'orizzonte sui prossimi appuntamenti in programma. Ma invitiamo tutti gli iscritti alla Città dei Liberi a scrivere alla nostra redazione (scrivi2[at]tocque-ville.it) per segnalarci appuntamenti locali o nazionali in cui la presenza di TocqueVille possa essere utile come strumento di informazione o di diffusione politica e culturale.

22 settembre 2007
TocqueVille aderisce alla manifestazione organizzata da Decidere.net a Roma, per dare un futuro alle pensioni e per dire "no" alla controriforma recentemente annunciata dal governo (sotto dettatura della sinistra comunista e del sindacato). Diamo appuntamento a tutti i nostri iscritti alle ore 16 in Piazza Fiume, a Roma, per una marcia che avrà come prima tappa la sede della CGIL in Corso Italia. Sono previsti, tra gli altri, gli interventi quelli di Benedetto della Vedova e Maurizio Sacconi. E hanno aderito diverse organizzazioni, da Forza Italia Giovani a think tank come l'Istituto Bruno Leoni, Menostato.it e Competere. Tutte le informazioni e il materiale da scaricare sono disponibili sul sito www.decidere.net.

6 ottobre 2007
TocqueVille sarà presente con un suo stand (con connessione internet wi-fi) alla prima convention nazionale dei Circoli della Libertà, che si svolgerà alla Fiera di Roma nel pomeriggio di sabato 6 ottobre. I blogger di TocqueVille avranno la possibilità di seguire la manifestazione in liveblogging e di esprimere in diretta la propria opinione sul "fenomeno" che sta scuotendo le fondamenta del centrodestra italiano.

crossposted at TQV

venerdì 14 settembre 2007

It Is Never Too Late

Good evening. In the life of all free nations, there come moments that decide the direction of a country and reveal the character of its people. We are now at such a moment.

In Iraq, an ally of the United States is fighting for its survival. Terrorists and extremists who are at war with us around the world are seeking to topple Iraq’s government, dominate the region, and attack us here at home. If Iraq’s young democracy can turn back these enemies, it will mean a more hopeful Middle East and a more secure America. This ally has placed its trust in the United States. And tonight, our moral and strategic imperatives are one: We must help Iraq defeat those who threaten its future and also threaten ours.

Eight months ago, we adopted a new strategy to meet that objective, including a surge in U.S. forces that reached full strength in June. This week, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker testified before Congress about how that strategy is progressing. In their testimony, these men made clear that our challenge in Iraq is formidable. Yet they concluded that conditions in Iraq are improving, that we are seizing the initiative from the enemy, and that the troop surge is working.

The premise of our strategy is that securing the Iraqi population is the foundation for all other progress. For Iraqis to bridge sectarian divides, they need to feel safe in their homes and neighborhoods. For lasting reconciliation to take root, Iraqis must feel confident that they do not need sectarian gangs for security. The goal of the surge is to provide that security and to help prepare Iraqi forces to maintain it. As I will explain tonight, our success in meeting these objectives now allows us to begin bringing some of our troops home.

Since the surge was announced in January, it has moved through several phases. First was the flow of additional troops into Iraq, especially Baghdad and Anbar Province. Once these forces were in place, our commanders launched a series of offensive operations to drive terrorists and militias out of their strongholds. Finally, in areas that have been cleared, we are surging diplomatic and civilian resources to ensure that military progress is quickly followed up with real improvements in daily life.

Anbar Province is a good example of how our strategy is working. Last year, an intelligence report concluded that Anbar had been lost to Al Qaeda. Some cited this report as evidence that we had failed in Iraq and should cut our losses and pull out. Instead, we kept the pressure on the terrorists. The local people were suffering under the Taliban-like rule of Al Qaeda, and they were sick of it. So they asked us for help.

To take advantage of this opportunity, I sent an additional 4,000 marines to Anbar as part of the surge. Together, local sheiks, Iraqi forces, and coalition troops drove the terrorists from the capital of Ramadi and other population centers. Today, a city where Al Qaeda once planted its flag is beginning to return to normal. Anbar citizens who once feared beheading for talking to an American or Iraqi soldier now come forward to tell us where the terrorists are hiding. Young Sunnis who once joined the insurgency are now joining the army and police. And with the help of our provincial reconstruction teams, new jobs are being created and local governments are meeting again.

These developments do not often make the headlines, but they do make a difference. During my visit to Anbar on Labor Day, local Sunni leaders thanked me for America’s support. They pledged they would never allow Al Qaeda to return. And they told me they now see a place for their people in a democratic Iraq. The Sunni governor of Anbar Province put it this way: “Our tomorrow starts today.”

The changes in Anbar show all Iraqis what becomes possible when extremists are driven out. They show Al Qaeda that it cannot count on popular support, even in a province its leaders once declared their home base. And they show the world that ordinary people in the Middle East want the same things for their children that we want for ours — a decent life and a peaceful future.

In Anbar, the enemy remains active and deadly. Earlier today, one of the brave tribal sheiks who helped lead the revolt against Al Qaeda was murdered. In response, a fellow Sunni leader declared: “We are determined to strike back and continue our work.” And as they do, they can count on the continued support of the United States.

Throughout Iraq, too many citizens are being killed by terrorists and death squads. And for most Iraqis, the quality of life is far from where it should be. Yet General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker report that the success in Anbar is beginning to be replicated in other parts of the country.

One year ago, much of Baghdad was under siege. Schools were closed, markets were shuttered, and sectarian violence was spiraling out of control. Today, most of Baghdad’s neighborhoods are being patrolled by coalition and Iraqi forces who live among the people they protect. Many schools and markets are reopening. Citizens are coming forward with vital intelligence. Sectarian killings are down. And ordinary life is beginning to return.

One year ago, much of Diyala Province was a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and other extremist groups, and its capital of Baquba was emerging as an Al Qaeda stronghold. Today, Baquba is cleared. Diyala Province is the site of a growing popular uprising against the extremists. And some local tribes are working alongside coalition and Iraqi forces to clear out the enemy and reclaim their communities.

One year ago, Shia extremists and Iranian-backed militants were gaining strength and targeting Sunnis for assassination. Today, these groups are being broken up, and many of their leaders are being captured or killed.

These gains are a tribute to our military, they are a tribute to the courage of the Iraqi security forces, and they are a tribute to an Iraqi government that has decided to take on the extremists.
Now the Iraqi government must bring the same determination to achieving reconciliation. This is an enormous undertaking after more than three decades of tyranny and division. The government has not met its own legislative benchmarks — and in my meetings with Iraqi leaders, I have made it clear that they must.

Yet Iraq’s national leaders are getting some things done. For example, they have passed a budget. They are sharing oil revenues with the provinces. They are allowing former Baathists to rejoin Iraq’s military or receive government pensions. And local reconciliation is taking place. The key now is to link this progress in the provinces to progress in Baghdad. As local politics change, so will national politics.

Our troops in Iraq are performing brilliantly. Along with Iraqi forces, they have captured or killed an average of more than 1,500 enemy fighters per month since January. Yet ultimately, the way forward depends on the ability of Iraqis to maintain security gains. According to General Petraeus and a panel chaired by retired General Jim Jones, the Iraqi army is becoming more capable, although there is still a great deal of work to be done to improve the national police. Iraqi forces are receiving increased cooperation from local populations. And this is improving their ability to hold areas that have been cleared.

Because of this success, General Petraeus believes we have now reached the point where we can maintain our security gains with fewer American forces. He has recommended that we not replace about 2,200 marines scheduled to leave Anbar Province later this month. In addition, he says it will soon be possible to bring home an Army combat brigade, for a total force reduction of 5,700 troops by Christmas. And he expects that by July, we will be able to reduce our troop levels in Iraq from 20 combat brigades to 15.

General Petraeus also recommends that in December, we begin transitioning to the next phase of our strategy in Iraq. As terrorists are defeated, civil society takes root, and the Iraqis assume more control over their own security, our mission in Iraq will evolve. Over time, our troops will shift from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to overwatching those forces. As this transition in our mission takes place, our troops will focus on a more limited set of tasks, including counterterrorism operations and training, equipping and supporting Iraqi forces.

I have consulted with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, other members of my national security team, Iraqi officials, and leaders of both parties in Congress. I have benefited from their advice, and I have accepted General Petraeus’s recommendations. I have directed General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker to update their joint campaign plan for Iraq, so we can adjust our military and civilian resources accordingly. I have also directed them to deliver another report to Congress in March. At that time, they will provide a fresh assessment of the situation in Iraq and of the troop levels and resources we need to meet our national security objectives. The principle guiding my decisions on troop levels in Iraq is “return on success.” The more successful we are, the more American troops can return home. And in all we do, I will ensure that our commanders on the ground have the troops and flexibility they need to defeat the enemy.

Americans want our country to be safe and our troops to begin coming home from Iraq. Yet those of us who believe success in Iraq is essential to our security, and those who believe we should bring our troops home, have been at odds. Now, because of the measure of success we are seeing in Iraq, we can begin seeing troops come home.

The way forward I have described tonight makes it possible, for the first time in years, for people who have been on opposite sides of this difficult debate to come together. This vision for a reduced American presence also has the support of Iraqi leaders from all communities. At the same time, they understand that their success will require U.S. political, economic and security engagement that extends beyond my Presidency. These Iraqi leaders have asked for an enduring relationship with America. And we are ready to begin building that relationship — in a way that protects our interests in the region and requires many fewer American troops.

The success of a free Iraq is critical to the security of the United States. A free Iraq will deny Al Qaeda a safe haven. A free Iraq will counter the destructive ambitions of Iran. A free Iraq will marginalize extremists, unleash the talent of its people, and be an anchor of stability in the region. A free Iraq will set an example for people across the Middle East. A free Iraq will be our partner in the fight against terror — and that will make us safer here at home.

Realizing this vision will be difficult, but it is achievable. Our military commanders believe we can succeed. Our diplomats believe we can succeed. And for the safety of future generations of Americans, we must succeed.

If we were to be driven out of Iraq, extremists of all strains would be emboldened. Al Qaeda could gain new recruits and new sanctuaries. Iran would benefit from the chaos and would be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region. Extremists could control a key part of the global energy supply. Iraq could face a humanitarian nightmare. Democracy movements would be violently reversed. We would leave our children to face a far more dangerous world. And as we saw on September the 11th, 2001, those dangers can reach our cities and kill our people.

Whatever political party you belong to, whatever your position on Iraq, we should be able to agree that America has a vital interest in preventing chaos and providing hope in the Middle East. We should be able to agree that we must defeat Al Qaeda, counter Iran, help the Afghan government, work for peace in the Holy Land, and strengthen our military so we can prevail in the struggle against terrorists and extremists.

So tonight I want to speak to members of the United States Congress: Let us come together on a policy of strength in the Middle East. I thank you for providing crucial funds and resources for our military. And I ask you to join me in supporting the recommendations General Petraeus has made and the troop levels he has asked for.

To the Iraqi people: You have voted for freedom, and now you are liberating your country from terrorists and death squads. You must demand that your leaders make the tough choices needed to achieve reconciliation. As you do, have confidence that America does not abandon our friends, and we will not abandon you.

To Iraq’s neighbors who seek peace: The violent extremists who target Iraq are also targeting you. The best way to secure your interests and protect your own people is to stand with the people of Iraq. That means using your economic and diplomatic leverage to strengthen the government in Baghdad. And it means the efforts by Iran and Syria to undermine that government must end.

To the international community: The success of a free Iraq matters to every civilized nation. We thank the 36 nations who have troops on the ground in Iraq and the many others who are helping that young democracy. We encourage all nations to help, by implementing the International Compact to revitalize Iraq’s economy, by participating in the Neighbors Conferences to boost cooperation and overcome differences in the region, and by supporting the new and expanded mission of the United Nations in Iraq.

To our military personnel, intelligence officers, diplomats, and civilians on the front lines in Iraq: You have done everything America has asked of you. And the progress I have reported tonight is in large part because of your courage and hard effort. You are serving far from home. Our nation is grateful for your sacrifices and the sacrifices of your families.

Earlier this year, I received an e-mail from the family of Army Specialist Brandon Stout of Michigan. Brandon volunteered for the National Guard and was killed while serving in Baghdad. His family has suffered greatly. Yet in their sorrow, they see larger purpose. His wife, Audrey, says that Brandon felt called to serve and knew what he was fighting for. And his parents, Tracy and Jeff, wrote me this: “We believe this is a war of good and evil and we must win ... even if it cost the life of our own son. Freedom is not free.”

This country is blessed to have Americans like Brandon Stout, who make extraordinary sacrifices to keep us safe from harm. They are doing so in a fight that is just, and right, and necessary. And now it falls to us to finish the work they have begun.

Some say the gains we are making in Iraq come too late. They are mistaken. It is never too late to deal a blow to Al Qaeda. It is never too late to advance freedom. And it is never too late to support our troops in a fight they can win. Good night, and God bless America.

George W. Bush - 14/09/2007

mercoledì 12 settembre 2007

Atreju '07

Siamo arrivati allo stand di Tocqueville ad Atreju 07, la festa nazionale di Azione Giovani. Ottima atmosfera, come lo scorso anno. Sulla home page di TQV (in temporanea sostituzione della sezione "International") troverete tutti i post relativi alla festa, compresi quelli di liveblogging e videoblogging (che probabilmente partiranno domani).

Invitiamo tutti i cittadini e i lettori di Tocqueville a venirci a trovare, se passano da queste parti. Ci troveranno in compagnia dei nostri amici de La Testata, organo di stampa ufficiale di AG iscritto da tempo al nostro aggregatore.

Le vittime

“Ah, se la sinistra italiana fosse come quella americana…”. Quante volte avete sentito pronunciare una frase simile, negli ambienti vicini al centrodestra nostrano? La sensazione diffusa tra chi è immune al virus dell’anti-americanismo, infatti, è che in una nazione come quella statunitense, mai sfiorata dall’ideologia e dalla prassi comunista, la sinistra sia più digeribile di quella costruita, decennio dopo decennio, dagli orfani di Stalin e Togliatti. Una sinistra meno reazionaria e meno legata a pregiudizi anti-liberali ed anti-capitalistici. Una sinistra quasi normale, insomma. Forse è arrivato il momento di affermare che questa teoria - anche se suggestiva, non priva di qualche brandello di verità e, di questi tempi, perfino confortante - è stata falsificata dai fatti. E i fatti sono sostanzialmente due: il recount in Florida nelle elezioni presidenziali del 2000 e gli attacchi terroristici dell’11 settembre 2001. (continua su L'Occidentale)

giovedì 6 settembre 2007

Giavazzate editoriali

L'ingegner Giavazzi non se ne fa una ragione. Noi ci eravamo occupati della sua bizzarra fissazione qualche mese fa. Adesso, con l'uscita di un libro che ha già vinto il premio per il titolo più idiota del decennio ("Il liberismo è di sinistra"), tocca a La Voce del Padrone e Camelot Destra Ideale l'ingrato compito di analizzare le turbe mentali del guru del Corrierino. Due post da leggere.

mercoledì 5 settembre 2007

Primarie USA: il punto della situazione

Anche se qualcuno (come noi) ha preferito dedicare agosto all'ozio, la corsa verso la Casa Bianca non si è certo fermata per il caldo. E i sondaggi in vista delle primarie sono continuati ad uscire per tutta l'estate, regalando agli osservatori qualche elemento interessante d'analisi. Facciamo il punto della situazione a pochi mesi dalle prime tornate elettorali.

Il bluff Obama
Poche novità in campo democratico. Nei sondaggi usciti dalla fine di luglio in poi, Hillary Rodham Clinton è sempre in vantaggio su Barack Obama con un distacco superiore al 15%, dimostrando - se ce ne fosse stato ancora bisogno - come il fenomeno Obama sia soprattutto un caso di innamoramento collettivo da parte dei mainstream media, piuttosto che un fenomeno con solide radici nell'elettorato statunitense. Secondo Rasmussen Reports (che però non misura il grado di consenso per Al Gore), Obama sta addirittura per essere raggiunto da John Edwards. Negli ultimi sei sondaggi, Hillary ha un vantaggio che oscilla tra il +15% di American Research Group e il +21% di Gallup.

Media RCP: Clinton 37.4% Obama 21.4% Gore 13.3%, Edwards 11.6%.

Rudy davanti a tutti
Il candidato-che-non-può-vincere-le-primarie-repubblicane continua a dominare il campo repubblicano. Prima di agosto, soltanto Rasmussen vedeva in vantaggio Fred Thompson (che a giorni, finalmente, dovrebbe annunciare la sua candidatura) sull'ex sindaco di New York, mentre Hotline/FD registrava un sostanziale pareggio tra i due candidati. Secondo tutti gli altri sondaggisti Giuliani godeva di un vantaggio piuttosto netto. Oggi anche Rasmussen (+5%) e Hotline (+10%) sembrano essersi arresi all'evidenza. Alle spalle dei due front-runner, sta lentamente acquistando peso la candidatura di Mitt Romney (un potenziale suicidio per il GOP), che secondo Quinnipiac avrebbe addirittura scavalcato Thompson, mentre John McCain non sembra poter riuscire ad invertire la tendenza che lo vede in caduta libera da qualche mese. Negli ultimi sei sondaggi, il vantaggio di Giuliani oscilla tra il 5% di Rasmussen e il 15% di Fox News.

Media RCP: Giuliani 28.0% Thompson 16.3% Romney 14.0% McCain 10.8%.

Match-Up
Nei sondaggi sui potenziali scontri tra candidati repubblicani e democratici, il difficile stato di salute del GOP emerge vistosamente. I repubblicani perdono sistematicamente ogni testa-a-testa, con una sola - notevolissima - eccezione: Rudy Giuliani. L'America's Mayor, a differenza dei suoi colleghi di partito, riesce a contenere lo svantaggio entro i limiti del margine d'errore statistico con tutti i concorrenti democratici e si comporta particolarmente bene contro Hillary, con la quale è addirittura in vantaggio secondo Rasmussen, Battleground e Gallup.

Why the Conservatives Like Rudy

Perché Rudy Giuliani piace ai conservatori. Su Italian Bloggers for Giuliani 2008.